Counterintelligence methods of terrorist organisations and the factors that influence them: a comparative study of Revolutionary Organisation 17 November and the Red Army Faction

Abstract

Continuing terrorist activities across the world create the impetus for a detailed, accurate and comprehensive understanding of the delicate intricacies that govern terrorist decision making. In order to achieve operational success and maintain secrecy, terrorist groups must constantly learn and adapt. In order to defeat them, their adversaries must be able to exhibit superior adaptive capability and strive to remain ahead of the terrorist learning curve. This thesis explores the terrorist counterintelligence methods and adaptation mechanisms of two organisations: the Revolutionary Organisation 17 November and the Red Army Faction. It examines the commonly accepted factors that influence the counterintelligence methods of terrorist groups and evaluates their impact on the group’s strategy. The factors that are considered to be fundamental in a group’s counterintelligence choices are (i) organisational structure, (ii) popular support, (iii) control of territory, (iv) resources and (v) adversary capability. The methods the groups chose are juxtaposed with the intelligence methods of their adversaries and the evolution of both is analysed. The analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between the ability of a group to adapt to changes in its environment and its long-term survival. Contrary to previous findings, the study shows that the most important factor influencing a group’s counterintelligence strategy is the capability and effectiveness of its adversary. The Red Army Faction was facing an effective opponent and adapted accordingly, developing sophisticated capabilities despite the repeated decapitation of its leadership. 17 November, on the other hand, was facing an adversary which did not approach it as a threat, thus maintaining relatively basic intelligence capacity. The lack of adaptation of 17 November when its adversary’s tactics suddenly improved led to its demise. By examining the methods used by terrorist organisations and understanding why these are chosen, concrete steps can be taken in creating an effective framework for counter-terrorism policy and international security.